President Donald Trump has reached the lowest approval ratings of his second term, driven by surging gas prices, widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, and growing public opposition to the U.S. military campaign against Iran, according to multiple major polls released this week. Democrats now hold a ten-point lead on the generic congressional ballot — a gap large enough, if sustained, to threaten the Republican House majority in November. The data reflects a profound shift in the political coalition that returned Trump to the White House in 2024.
Story Highlights
- Gas prices have surged to a national average of $4.48 per gallon as of May 5, according to AAA, up from below $3 before the Iran war. NPR
- 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s overall job performance in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, with 59% disapproving — his worst score in either of his two terms. Marist Poll
- Democrats lead by 10 points on the congressional ballot test, with Democratic voters holding a significant enthusiasm advantage heading into November. NPR
What Happened
Multiple polling organizations released new national surveys this week painting a consistent picture of deep political trouble for Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. The surveys, conducted independently by NPR/PBS News/Marist, Reuters/Ipsos, and the Associated Press-NORC Center, show Trump’s approval sinking to record lows across a broad range of issues, including the economy, the Iran war, and his handling of gas prices.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, conducted April 27 through April 30 among 1,322 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, found that 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s overall job performance and 59% disapprove. The figure represents the worst standing recorded for Trump in this polling series across both of his presidential terms. Marist Poll
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval rating at 34 percent, also the lowest since he returned to the White House, with only 22 percent of respondents backing his performance on the cost of living. The poll was conducted April 24 through April 27 among 1,014 U.S. adults. Al Jazeera
The polls show that Trump’s approval has declined primarily because of his tariffs, continued higher-than-pre-pandemic prices, and now rising gas prices caused by the Iran war. Only 35% approve of his handling of the economy, tied for the worst mark recorded in the Marist survey, a record also set in March. NPR
Fifty-one percent of respondents said they strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing, indicating the intensity of opposition Republicans are facing heading into the fall. NPR
Why It Matters
The scale and breadth of Trump’s disapproval carry significant implications for Republican candidates across the country. Presidential approval is the single strongest predictor of a party’s performance in midterm elections, and the historical data is unambiguous: when a president falls below 50% approval, the average House loss jumps sharply.
The shifts toward Democrats by white people without college degrees and adults in the South are particularly striking. Adults in the South went from voting for Trump by 13 points in 2024 to now saying they are 5 points more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate. These are core constituencies that formed the foundation of Trump’s 2024 victory, and their movement away from the president represents a fundamental realignment of the midterm battlefield. NPR
Trump’s unpopularity is evident across voter groups that were key pillars to his 2024 presidential success. Compared to February 2025, white voters without college degrees, parents of children under 18, those who make less than $50,000 a year, and even adults in the South now give a net-negative job approval rating to the president. NPR
By a 63% to 37% margin, respondents said they blame Trump for the current increase in gas prices — including a third of Republicans. When a president’s own party blames him for a flagship consumer grievance, the political damage extends well beyond traditional opposition voters and into the margins that determine competitive House and Senate races. NPR
Economic and Global Context
The Iran war is the primary driver of the economic anxiety reflected in the polls. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted most shipping through the vital oil transit route, has sent energy prices soaring globally and fueled inflation in the United States. The U.S. and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire on April 8 that Trump extended indefinitely, but dueling blockades in the Gulf — Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. laying a naval siege on Iranian ports — have caused global energy supply issues to persist despite the truce. Al Jazeera
More than 8 in 10 Americans — including 79% of Republicans — said pain at the pump is putting a strain on their household budgets. This level of economic pain is unusually broad and crosses partisan lines, making it politically inescapable for incumbents of either party but especially damaging for the party in power. Consumer spending patterns are already showing stress in discretionary categories as more household income is absorbed by fuel costs. NPR
62% of Americans, up from 57% in January, think the United States’ role on the world stage has been weakened due to Trump’s decisions. Even 22% of Republicans — up from 11% in January — believe the United States’ global position has deteriorated under the president’s leadership. Rising domestic costs and perceived international retreat are a particularly volatile combination in a midterm environment, as they undercut both the economic nationalist and foreign policy credibility arguments the administration prefers to make. Marist Poll
Implications
Democrats currently hold a clear enthusiasm advantage. In the NPR poll, 61% of Democrats and those who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote in the midterms, compared to 53% of Republicans and just 47% of Trump voters specifically. In a midterm year, where turnout is typically 30% lower than presidential years, this enthusiasm gap is operationally consequential and difficult to overcome through voter registration alone. NPR
For Republican candidates, the challenge is twofold: they must decide whether to run toward or away from Trump’s record, and they must contend with an electorate that views his signature second-term policies — tariffs, the Iran war, deregulation — as economic liabilities rather than benefits. In swing districts, that calculation becomes especially fraught.
Several crossover groups that swung toward Trump in the 2024 presidential election — including millennials, Latinos, and many younger voters — have heavily moved away from this president. Democratic strategists will attempt to lock in these gains through targeted mobilization efforts in the months ahead, while Republicans will look to the redistricting advantages they have secured and hope that economic conditions improve before November. NPR
The broader warning embedded in these polls is structural, not cyclical. A president who loses the trust of working-class voters on pocketbook issues while simultaneously facing opposition intensity from college-educated voters and demographic groups in transition faces a combination of pressures that midterm redistricting maps alone cannot fully absorb.
Sources
“National mood is against GOP; redistricting may soften the blow”
