With six months to go before the November midterm elections, President Trump’s job approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his second term, according to multiple major polls, while Democrats have opened a significant lead on the generic congressional ballot. The decline is driven by voter frustration with the Iran war, high energy prices, and concerns about the economy — a combination that analysts say puts the Republican House majority in genuine jeopardy. The White House is aware of the headwinds, but has so far struggled to reverse the trajectory.
Story Highlights
- Trump’s net approval hit -18.9 in the Silver Bulletin average, a new second-term low
- Democrats hold a 10-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, per Emerson College polling
- Trump’s disapproval among Hispanic voters, young voters, and independents has surged sharply
What Happened
President Trump’s net approval rating hit a new second-term low of -18.9 in the Silver Bulletin average as of May 10, 2026. Among U.S. adults specifically — as opposed to the broader average incorporating registered and likely voters — Trump’s net approval stands at -20.6. Approximately 48 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of his job performance.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted April 20 through 26, 2026, found Trump’s job approval rating stands at 34 percent — the lowest mark of his second term. Americans’ assessments of the president have declined steadily over the last several months across a variety of personal attributes and issue areas.
One of the steepest declines has been in the share of Americans who say Trump “keeps his promises.” Today, 38 percent say this describes Trump very or fairly well, down from 43 percent last August and 51 percent shortly after his reelection in November 2024.
An April 2026 Emerson College national survey of likely voters found Democrats hold a 10-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, leading Republicans 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent undecided. President Trump holds a 40 percent job approval rating and 56 percent disapproval among likely voters in that poll, a two-point decrease in approval and a five-point increase in disapproval since March.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll published May 3 found that six months ahead of the November midterms, the Republican Party faces a deteriorating political climate, with Americans broadly dissatisfied with Trump’s leadership on the Iran war and other issues, and Democrats significantly more motivated to vote.
Why It Matters
The breadth of the approval decline is what makes these numbers particularly alarming for Republicans. Declines in Trump’s standing have come at least as much from Republicans as from Democrats. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 68 percent approve of the way Trump is handling his job — down from 73 percent in January. GOP confidence in Trump on foreign policy has declined by 7 points over this time period.
When a president’s own party base begins to soften, it creates a cascading political problem. Volunteer enthusiasm drops, fundraising becomes harder, and incumbents in competitive districts begin to distance themselves from the White House. All three of those dynamics are now visible in Republican politics, with several House members in swing districts running campaigns that emphasize local issues rather than Trump’s national agenda.
Trump’s unpopularity is particularly visible with voter groups that were key pillars of his 2024 coalition. White voters without college degrees, parents of children under 18, those who make less than $50,000 a year, and adults in the South now give a net-negative job approval to the president. Millennials, Latinos, and many younger voters who swung toward Trump in 2024 have heavily moved away from him.
Trump’s economic approval is down to 35 percent, and on his handling of the Iran war, just 33 percent approve. Americans largely do not feel the economy is working well for them — 63 percent said so in the latest NPR poll. These are the two issues that dominate voter attention, and on both, the president is significantly underwater.
Economic and Global Context
Historical patterns offer a sobering context for the Republican Party. Presidents’ parties have lost, on average, 25 House seats and four Senate seats during midterm elections since World War II. The average losses in the House jump to 33 seats when the president is below 50 percent approval, as Trump currently is. Trump is aware of this history; he mentioned it several times since the beginning of his second term, saying “even when you have a great president, they tend to lose the midterms.”
Disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy increased seven points from April 2025 to April 2026, from 49 to 56 percent. Disapproval on foreign policy increased eight points over the same period, from 46 to 54 percent. Independent voters’ disapproval of the administration’s handling of immigration increased 17 points in a year, reaching 60 percent.
Trump is deeply underwater among Hispanic voters on job approval: 70 percent disapprove, compared to 29 percent who approve. This is a dramatic reversal from a year ago, when they were nearly evenly split, with 44 percent disapproving and 41 percent approving. The loss of Hispanic voter support, which was a cornerstone of Trump’s 2024 electoral performance, represents a structural vulnerability that extends beyond midterms.
ckdrop compounds the political pressure. Elevated energy prices, trade disruptions from ongoing tariff regimes, and uncertainty over the Iran conflict have combined to produce a consumer sentiment environment that is distinctly unfavorable to the incumbent party. When voters feel economic strain in their daily lives, they historically use midterm elections to register that dissatisfaction — a pattern that has held across Democratic and Republican administrations alike.
Implications
Democrats have enjoyed a string of overperformances in 2025 and 2026 elections, from special elections for congressional and state legislative districts to statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia. Michigan Democrats won a state Senate special election by about 19 points in a district that Vice President Kamala Harris had carried by just 1 point in 2024. Special election swings of that magnitude, if replicated in November, would result in major Democratic gains in the House.
Republicans are hoping that their recent wins in redistricting battles — drawing favorable maps in several states — can provide enough structural insulation to offset the adverse political environment. Analysts, however, warn that the national mood is too hostile for map-drawing alone to save the majority. A wave election is difficult to gerrymander against.
For the business community, a change in House control would have significant consequences. Democrats in the majority would likely launch investigations into the Iran war’s conduct and costs, scrutinize contracts awarded during the conflict, and push to claw back elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — particularly the Medicaid cuts and green energy credit rollbacks. Regulatory policy would also shift as committee chairs change.
For voters who supported Trump in 2024 expecting economic improvement, the current trajectory represents a significant disillusionment. The question heading into November is whether that disillusionment translates into Democratic enthusiasm, Republican abstention, or both — and whether Trump’s base, which has shown remarkable resilience in prior cycles, contracts further as gas prices and war-weariness persist.
