Story Highlights
- Recent polling shows support for California’s proposed billionaire tax has dropped to 45%.
- Opposition to the measure is rising, with 43% of voters now against it.
- High-profile opponents, including Governor Gavin Newsom, are voicing their concerns.
- Supporters argue the tax will benefit healthcare programs for low-income Californians.
What Happened
California’s proposed billionaire tax, officially known as Proposition 40, is facing a significant decline in voter support, according to a recent poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research in collaboration with POLITICO. The poll, released on Monday, indicates that only 45% of registered voters in California currently support the measure, a notable decrease from the 50% support recorded in a previous poll conducted in February. This shift in public sentiment is raising alarms among proponents of the tax, as opposition has surged to 43%, leaving only 12% of voters undecided.
Jack Citrin, a political science professor at UC Berkeley and co-director of the poll, remarked on the trend, stating, ‘The trend in Prop 40 is certainly going against Prop 40.’ He further emphasized that historical patterns suggest that the opposition could potentially prevail in the upcoming vote. The poll also revealed that among likely voters who are undecided, a significant 65% indicated they are more inclined to support the measure, while only 15% expressed a likelihood of voting against it. This statistic suggests that while overall support is waning, there remains a core group of voters who could still be swayed.
- The UC Berkeley-Politico poll was conducted from September 8-14.
- 2,418 respondents participated in the survey, with a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.
- 64% of respondents expressed skepticism about the tax being a one-time measure.
- Support for the tax is notably higher among Democrats, with 66% in favor.
Why It Matters
The implications of this declining support for Proposition 40 are significant, not only for the future of the tax itself but also for the broader political landscape in California. The proposed tax, which aims to impose a 5% levy on the net worth of the state’s 200 billionaires, has been framed by its supporters as a necessary step to address income inequality and fund essential services, particularly in healthcare for middle-class and low-income residents. However, the growing opposition raises questions about the feasibility and long-term sustainability of such a tax.
Critics of the measure, including high-profile figures such as Governor Gavin Newsom and Google co-founder Sergey Brin, argue that the tax could have detrimental effects on the state’s economy. Newsom has publicly advocated for a national billionaire tax instead, suggesting that a state-level approach may not be the most effective solution. The involvement of influential opponents like Brin, who has reportedly contributed over $100 million to political action committees opposing Proposition 40, underscores the measure’s contentious nature.
- Opposition could lead to a significant shift in California’s tax policy.
- Concerns about the tax’s potential expansion beyond its initial scope are prevalent among voters.
- Supporters argue it will provide necessary funding for healthcare programs.
- High-profile opposition may sway undecided voters.
Political and Public Context
The debate surrounding Proposition 40 is not occurring in a vacuum. It is part of a larger national conversation about wealth inequality and taxation. The measure has garnered support from various unions, including the Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), which argues that the tax will help fund critical healthcare initiatives. Additionally, progressive lawmakers such as Senator Bernie Sanders have rallied behind the measure, framing it as a moral imperative to address the disparities in wealth distribution.
However, the political landscape in California is complex, with a significant portion of the electorate expressing skepticism about the effectiveness of such taxes. The California Democratic Party’s recent endorsement of the measure, following a narrow vote, indicates a divided stance within the party itself. This internal conflict may further complicate the measure’s chances of success.
- The California Democratic Party endorsed Proposition 40 last month.
- SEIU-UHW President Dave Regan emphasized party unity in support of the tax.
- Opponents have begun airing advertisements against the measure.
- Polling indicates a significant portion of voters are concerned about the tax’s long-term implications.
California Latino voters reject Trump, frustrated with economy in new poll https://t.co/Gn1aqSz72c
— Capitol Alert (@CapitolAlert) September 22, 2026
What Happens Next
As the election approaches, the future of Proposition 40 remains uncertain. The declining support highlighted in the recent poll suggests that proponents of the measure will need to intensify their efforts to sway undecided voters and reassure the public about the tax’s intended purpose. With high-profile opponents actively campaigning against the measure, the landscape is becoming increasingly competitive.
The next steps for supporters may include launching targeted advertising campaigns to counteract the negative messaging from opponents and emphasizing the potential benefits of the tax for healthcare funding. Additionally, they may seek to address voter concerns regarding the tax’s permanence and its implications for the state’s economy.
- Supporters may ramp up advertising efforts to counteract opposition.
- Voter outreach initiatives could be implemented to address concerns.
- Polling will continue to be monitored for shifts in public sentiment.
- Potential legal challenges could arise if the measure passes.
