New polling data released this week confirms that President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his second term, driven by deepening public dissatisfaction with the U.S.-Iran war, rising energy prices, and growing anxiety about the economy. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found a broadly deteriorating political climate for Republicans, while the Silver Bulletin polling average placed Trump’s net approval at -18.4 — a historic low for the second term. With six months until November’s midterm elections, the data presents serious headwinds for the GOP.
Story Highlights
- Trump’s net approval rating has fallen to -18.4 according to the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 5, 2026
- The I&I/TIPP poll shows 54 percent of Americans view Trump unfavorably, with Republican support for the president dropping to its lowest recorded level at 75 percent approval
- Trump’s approval on cost of living sits at a net -41.5, the lowest issue-specific rating of his second term
What Happened
Multiple major polls released in late April and early May 2026 converge on a consistent picture: President Donald Trump‘s public standing has deteriorated sharply in recent months and shows no signs of stabilizing. The Silver Bulletin polling average, maintained by analyst Nate Silver, recorded Trump’s net approval rating at -18.4 as of May 5 — a figure that has declined significantly from -16.9 just a month earlier. Individual polls in the average include a Reuters/Ipsos result of -30 net approval, a Navigator Research result of -18, and an Economist/YouGov result of -22.
The I&I/TIPP Poll, conducted from April 28 through May 1 among 1,464 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, found Trump’s overall favorability at 38 percent favorable against 54 percent unfavorable. Job approval mirrored that figure exactly — 38 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove. Of particular note, Republican support for the president, while still strong in absolute terms, has fallen to 75 percent approval — the lowest level ever recorded by I&I/TIPP. Some 18 percent of Republicans now view Trump unfavorably, a figure that has steadily risen through March and April.
The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, published May 3, found broad dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the Iran war specifically, and found that Democratic voters are significantly more motivated to vote than Republicans — a reversal of the partisan enthusiasm gap that typically benefits the majority party in off-year elections. Early voting data from Ohio ahead of Tuesday’s primaries showed Democratic primary ballots outnumbering Republican ones by roughly 11 percent, consistent with national polling on Democratic voter enthusiasm.
A separate Pew Research Center survey conducted from April 20 to 26 among 5,103 U.S. adults found that views of Trump’s handling of key issues including immigration and the use of military force had become more negative compared to earlier in his second term. Trump began his second term with a 47 percent approval rating — the second-lowest inaugural approval in polling history, behind only his own first-term figure. Since then, his numbers have declined steadily to an average of 37 to 40 percent across major pollsters.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval is the single most reliable predictor of midterm election outcomes. Historical data consistently shows that when a president’s approval falls significantly below 50 percent, the party holding the White House loses congressional seats in the subsequent midterm. At -18.4 net approval, Trump is in deeply unfavorable territory by that measure — even accounting for polling uncertainty and the possibility of a late recovery.
The collapse in approval has been particularly pronounced on economic issues, which have traditionally been Trump’s strongest political terrain. His net approval on cost of living sits at -41.5, a figure the Silver Bulletin has had to extend its tracking chart to accommodate after multiple record lows. Gas prices have risen to $4.45 per gallon nationally — directly tied to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and that daily, visible economic pain is registering powerfully in public opinion research.
Democratic voter enthusiasm is a compounding problem for Republicans. Midterm elections typically favor the opposition party through lower presidential-party turnout, but the current environment shows Democrats actively surging to the polls in early voting and primary contests. If that enthusiasm translates to November, Republicans face the prospect of defending a historically difficult electoral map with a structurally weakened coalition.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle pushed back on the polling data, telling Newsweek that “no other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump” and pointing to job creation, housing affordability, and global diplomatic progress as evidence. The administration has argued that polling at this stage of a presidency is not predictive and that the “ultimate poll” was Trump’s November 2024 victory, in which nearly 80 million Americans voted for him.
Economic and Global Context
The economic discontent reflected in Trump’s approval numbers is rooted in measurable data. Energy prices have climbed sharply since the Iran war began on February 28, with the national average for a gallon of gasoline rising from under $3 before the conflict to $4.45 today. That represents a significant household cost burden, particularly for lower- and middle-income Americans who spend a higher share of their income on transportation.
Inflation, which had been gradually moderating through 2025, has re-accelerated in part due to energy prices and in part due to supply chain disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult policy environment: raising interest rates to combat inflation risks choking off economic growth, while holding rates steady allows inflationary pressures to persist. Financial markets have so far remained resilient — the S&P 500 continues to trade near record highs — but consumer-facing economic indicators tell a different story than equity markets.
The Iran war has also tested American alliances in ways that carry indirect economic consequences. Trump’s announcement that troop reductions in Germany would go “way down” beyond the initial 5,000-troop figure blindsided NATO, rattled financial markets in Europe, and added a layer of geopolitical uncertainty that discourages international investment. European allies have committed to raising defense spending to 5 percent of GDP in response to American pressure, but diplomatic friction between Washington and Berlin has intensified.
Implications
For Republican lawmakers, the polling data creates a difficult strategic dilemma. Those who have publicly aligned themselves with Trump’s agenda — including the Iran war, redistricting pushes, and voting law changes — now face constituents who are broadly dissatisfied with those policies. Those who have deviated from Trump’s line, as several Indiana state senators did on redistricting, face primary challenges backed by presidential endorsements and millions in outside spending.
Trump’s internal Republican numbers deserve specific attention. While 75 percent approval among Republicans remains a majority, a president who can only count on three-quarters of his own party’s voters faces a fundamentally different coalition math than the unified Republican support that characterized much of his first term. In close midterm races, a defection rate of even 5 to 10 percent among registered Republicans can flip competitive seats.
For the November midterms, the critical question is whether conditions change enough between now and Election Day to reverse the trend. If a peace deal with Iran is reached, energy prices fall, and inflation cools, Trump and Republicans could plausibly recover ground. If the war continues, prices remain elevated, and the redistricting effort generates legal battles and negative press, the electoral environment could worsen further. With 182 days until the midterms, that window is narrowing.
