Why is New Hampshire’s primary first?
The state government of New Hampshire fiercely defends its position as the top primary in the country. Historically, Iowa has its contest earlier than New Hampshire, but it’s a caucus—a gathering at a set time—instead of a primary with ballots cast in secret.
A 1975 state statute in New Hampshire mandates that its primary be held prior to those of any other state.
The nation as a whole is not represented by the state. With less than 1.5 million inhabitants, the most of them are White. However, New Hampshire voters take their responsibility as the first primary state seriously, and it’s an intriguing aspect of the American political system that candidates for president must campaign among regular New Hampshire residents in their living rooms and dine establishments.
In general elections, New Hampshire is often cited as a battleground state, even though Republicans control the state legislature. However, since 2004, it has supported the Democratic candidate in each and every presidential election.
Who can vote in New Hampshire’s primary?
Registered Republicans and Democrats vote in their own primaries, but it’s important to note that in New Hampshire, independent voters can also take part by asking for either a Republican or Democratic ballot.
Who is ahead in New Hampshire?
Trump is the clear front-runner and holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, according to a CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire and released Sunday. Trump’s closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, stands at 39%. Both have gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January (when Trump held 39% to Haley’s 32%), as the field of major contenders has shrunk. Other major candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had early buzz in the campaign, have dropped out of the race.
New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed Haley and has spoken out against Trump for the former president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. But Sununu recently calibrated his position to make clear he would vote for Trump if the former president wins the Republican primary race, even if he’s a convicted felon.
Haley has focused on undeclared voters, hoping they can help her against Trump’s committed Republican base. Even if Haley scores a victory against Trump in the state, she will then have to figure out how to translate a message that works in the Northeast for the rest of the country’s Republicans.
How many delegates are at stake?
New Hampshire’s primaries and their results get a lot of scrutiny because they come first, but there are only a relatively few delegates on the line. Ultimately, it is winning delegates that secure primary nominations.
New Hampshire gets 22 delegates in the Republican primary process – less than 1% of the total delegates who will vote at the convention this summer. All of the state’s Republican delegates will be awarded to candidates proportionally based on their statewide primary performance, but candidates need to win at least 10% of the vote to be eligible for delegates.
Democrats are only giving New Hampshire 10 delegates this year, a punishment for conducting the primary earlier than the party wanted. More on that below.
Does New Hampshire have a good track record of picking the nominee or the president?
Some poll-defying surprises have occurred in New Hampshire’s primary, such as the unexpected victory of then-Sen. Gary Hart in the Democratic primary in 1984 and the Republican primary victory of then-Sen. John McCain over George W. Bush in 2000.
Its record of selecting the Republican nominee is really good. The New Hampshire primary winner has not gone on to become the Republican candidate just three times since the 1950s. Republicans lost the general election in two of those years, 1964, when Henry Cabot Lodge won the primary, and 1996, when Pat Buchanan won. Bush did not win in New Hampshire in 2000, but he did win the White House.
Democratically, New Hampshire has not done as well. Since John Kerry in 2004, the ultimate primary victor has not gone on to win the nomination in races where there is no Democratic incumbent. Despite being the incumbent, Joe Biden is not running this year.
Why isn’t Biden on the ballot in New Hampshire’s primary?
The Democratic situation in 2024 is complicated since Biden’s name will not appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot.
The Democratic National Committee wanted South Carolina, which has a more diverse base of Democratic voters, to go first.
New Hampshire’s state government, which is controlled by Republicans, had no interest in handing over its first primary status to appease the DNC. Biden also lost the New Hampshire primary on his way to the White House in 2020. His victory in the South Carolina primary reignited his campaign.
The weird result is that Biden, an incumbent who is all but guaranteed to be his party’s nominee in November, won’t have his name appear on the 2024 primary ballot in New Hampshire.
There are other options – for example, the author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota have gotten some attention. In all, there are 21 names on the Democratic ballot in New Hampshire this year. There is also a space for writing in a name at the bottom.
How long has the New Hampshire primary been a thing?
Primaries are a relatively recent addition to the American democratic experiment.
New Hampshire was among a wave of states, led by Oregon in 1910, to give voters a say in the process with party primaries. Back then, primary voters elected delegates to national conventions. New Hampshire started conducting its presidential preference primary before other states in 1920, according to the state historical society.
Delegates still do technically pick the party’s nominee, but New Hampshire primary voters did not begin voting directly for presidential candidates until 1952.
The first direct primaries had an immediate impact. Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower was still on active duty in the military and was not even a declared candidate when his name was put on the Republican ballot in New Hampshire in 1952. He went on to win the White House.
That same year, then-President Harry Truman, although an incumbent, suffered an unexpected loss in New Hampshire to then-Sen. Estes Kefauver and quickly dropped out of the race.
Similarly, in 1968, then-President Lyndon B. Johnson decided to end his campaign for reelection after only barely winning the New Hampshire primary. The second-place finisher, then-Sen. Eugene McCarthy, who opposed the war in Vietnam, was passed over for the nomination at the Democratic National Convention by party delegates who preferred then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey.
Violence broke out in Chicago around the Democratic convention that summer, leading to more efforts to democratize the primary process.