When Hamas announced on Monday evening that it has “agreed” to a ceasefire deal, it took many by surprise. Israel seemed caught off guard by the situation, leaving them uncertain about Hamas’ intentions.
Hamas’ announcement was initially received with great joy in Gaza and cautious hope by leaders in the region, as it was presented as an acceptance of an Israeli proposal. However, Israel took a cautious stance, stating that Hamas’ position fell short of meeting its demands.
Continuing its military operation in Rafah, southern Gaza, the government conducted air strikes on Monday and took control of the Palestinian side of a border crossing with Egypt on Tuesday morning. These actions were taken despite the intense pressure from the hardline coalition to fully commit.
Meanwhile, Israel announced its intention to dispatch a delegation to Cairo in order to evaluate Hamas’ stance. The CIA director, Bill Burns, made a trip to Cairo on Tuesday and is set to have a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Wednesday.
What’s the latest update?
What we know about what Hamas is offering
Hamas announced on Monday that it has agreed to an Egyptian-Qatari proposal for a ceasefire and hostage agreement in Gaza. The agreement entails a ceasefire, the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, an exchange of captives, the reconstruction of the territory, and the lifting of Israel’s blockade of the enclave.
A photograph captures the scene of a heavily damaged neighborhood in Khan Yunis, located in the southern Gaza Strip. The destruction is a result of the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Hamas movement, which continues to escalate.
An offer has been made by Hamas that involves the release of 33 hostages from Israel in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners over a 42-day period. Additionally, the offer includes plans for the rebuilding of Gaza during a period of sustainable calm. This information was shared with politicallines by a regional source familiar with the negotiations.
According to a diplomatic source familiar with the talks, the mention of sustainable calm was seen as a clever way to establish a lasting ceasefire without explicitly labeling it as such.
The agreement will be split into three phases, each lasting 42 days. According to the document seen by politicallines, an eventual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza would be included in the second phase.
US officials have responded to Hamas’ assertion of “agreement” to a ceasefire deal by stating that it was actually a counterproposal with modifications. According to sources, the counterproposal will require additional negotiation and is being viewed as a strategic move by Hamas to showcase their willingness to reach an agreement.
Despite recent developments, the White House remains optimistic that Israel and Hamas can reach a mutually beneficial agreement based on their respective negotiating positions.
What has the response been from Israel and others?
According to Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz, the deal proposed by Hamas does not align with the previous dialogue and negotiations that took place with mediators, and it contains significant differences. According to Netanyahu, the war cabinet reached a unanimous decision that Hamas’ offer did not meet Israel’s core demands.
Israel, on the other hand, decided to send a delegation to Cairo in order to gain a deeper understanding of the Hamas offer and assess the possibility of reaching an agreement.
The most significant issue at hand revolves around the matter of a lasting ceasefire and the approach to tackle it within the agreement. According to a senior American official who spoke to politicallines, the Hamas proposal is causing tension with Netanyahu, as it involves ending the war.
According to Frank Lowenstein, who served as Special Envoy for Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations under US President Barack Obama during the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, the ongoing ceasefire negotiations could be a critical turning point in the blame-game that both sides have been engaged in.
According to Lowenstein, it seems that Hamas has agreed to the proposed ambiguous duration and unenforceable guarantees of a permanent ceasefire put forward by the mediators. Lowenstein also suggests that Netanyahu may prefer to invade Rafah for his extremist coalition politics rather than accept a ceasefire that could potentially end the war and lead to elections.
How are the talks linked to Israel’s Rafah operation?
Israel claims that Rafah is a stronghold for Hamas in Gaza. Last week, Netanyahu promised to carry out a ground operation there, regardless of any agreement with Hamas and despite US pressure to refrain from doing so.
On Monday evening, the Israeli military carried out air strikes in eastern Rafah, targeting what they claimed were Hamas sites. On Tuesday morning, it had taken over the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, replacing Palestinian flags with Israeli ones to assert its authority. In response to a directive from the Israeli military, approximately 100,000 residents of northern Rafah were instructed to evacuate without delay.
According to Netanyahu, the Hamas ceasefire offer was intended to undermine the Rafah operation, but it failed to do so.
The Rafah crossing holds significant importance for Hamas, according to Barak Ravid, a politicallines political and global affairs analyst. Ravid explained to Anderson Cooper that the crossing is viewed as a powerful symbol of Hamas’s ongoing authority over Gaza.
Displaced Palestinians, who fled Rafah due to the Israeli military’s evacuation of civilians from the eastern parts of the southern Gazan city, are seen traveling on a vehicle in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on May 6, 2024.
Israel’s capture of the crossing may have negatively impacted Hamas’ reputation among the Palestinian people in Gaza. Additionally, it serves as a means to exert pressure on Hamas in negotiations regarding hostages.
The Rafah operation was not as extensive as a large-scale ground incursion that the Biden administration had cautioned Israel against. However, it could have been intended to satisfy certain extremist ministers in Netanyahu’s cabinet who have been urging him to proceed with an invasion of the city. These ministers have been threatening to dismantle his coalition if he does not comply.
According to US officials who spoke to politicallines on Tuesday, the Biden administration does not view Israeli military activity in Rafah as the start of a significant operation in southern Gaza. A source familiar with Israeli plans also mentioned that the limited incursion into Rafah is aimed at maintaining pressure on Hamas to reach a ceasefire agreement and secure the release of hostages.
According to Lowenstein, the former US negotiator, a military operation in Rafah could potentially benefit both Israel and Hamas.
Netanyahu aims to demonstrate his strength by opposing the United States and the international community in defense of Israel. Hamas believes that entering Rafah will result in Israel becoming more isolated, including from the US, and facing increased international condemnation.
What’s at stake for Netanyahu and Hamas?
Hamas and Israel have traded accusations of hindering progress and prolonging the conflict.
According to experts, both parties are advocating for extreme demands as their political futures are at stake.
Netanyahu is facing a challenging situation. He is under significant pressure from his closest international allies and the families of Israeli hostages to reach a ceasefire agreement and prevent a full-scale invasion of Rafah. Additionally, he must navigate the demands of hardliners in his fragile coalition who are determined to continue until Hamas is completely eradicated.
Hamas may also have concerns about what could happen if the war concludes without a solid assurance of a lasting ceasefire.
According to Lowenstein, Hamas has shown little interest in any deal with Israel that does not guarantee a permanent end to hostilities. The group believes that only such an outcome can secure its survival.
An Israeli politician, Orib Strook, is seen standing in the midst of a small crowd, proudly holding two Israeli flags. She has a third flag elegantly draped over her body.
“Both parties are solely focused on securing a ceasefire agreement that guarantees their political survival,” remarked Lowenstein. From Hamas’ perspective, this represents a lasting ceasefire that enables them to maintain certain military capabilities. For Bibi, it’s just a brief interruption on the journey to achieving ‘total victory’.
Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, DC, suggests that both Hamas and Netanyahu have seen political gains from the ongoing conflict. However, there is growing domestic pressure for both parties to bring an end to the hostilities.
“Hamas is facing significant pressure, even from its own leaders residing outside of Gaza, to consider cease-fire proposals from Egypt and Qatar. This would provide some relief for the organization and the Palestinians in Gaza,” Ibish shared with politicallines.
According to him, Hamas seems to understand that it has a higher likelihood of survival compared to Netanyahu, even if the group resurfaces in a different manner.
Hamas will endure. It serves as both a political organization and a well-known brand. According to Ibish, it does not consist of a roster of individuals who can be eliminated or infrastructure and equipment that can be demolished. Netanyahu, however, will not be able to maintain his position indefinitely, both in terms of his personal life and his political career.